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I’m losing patience with the Diageo (LSE: DGE) share price and I’m sure I’m not alone. All the FTSE 100 spirits giant seems to do is fall and fall. Will it ever end?
There have been odd moments of respite but every time, the downward trend resumes. Diageo shares are down around 53% over five years and 11% over the last 12 months.
Its problems are deeply embedded, and newish CEO Dave Lewis has only just begun scratching the surface.
This FTSE 100 struggler’s problems run deep
Diageo’s 2026 results (6 August) weren’t pretty. Revenue fell 3% to $19.6bn, while reported operating profit plunged 27.2%. That sounds disastrous, but it was heavily distorted by $2.4bn of exceptional restructuring and impairment charges.
Underlying operating profit actually rose 2% to $5.7bn, while free cash flow jumped 17% to $3.2bn. The problem is that even this better-looking figure masks a weak underlying sales performance as organic revenue fell 2%.
North America remains the biggest problem, with consumers feeling the squeeze, hitting US spirits sales. There are broader worries about Gen Z drinking less, greater moderation among health-conscious oldies (like me), and the impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs.
All that and US tariffs too
Diageo estimates US tariffs could have cost around $200m a year before mitigation under its previous assumptions. The latest US-Canada trade escalation deepens the problems facing Crown Royal, its Canadian whisky brand.
Lewis has been busy. He’s launched a three-year restructuring programme targeting around $1bn of annual savings, while promising to reinvest some of that money into innovation and competitiveness. He’s also targeting faster growth in Guinness, ready-to-drink products and canned cocktails, while trying to make Diageo more competitive in North America. He has a long way to go.
Investors won’t get much income while they wait for lift-off after Lewis slashed the dividend. Even by 2027, the forward yield is just 2.56%. Diageo also has $20.5bn of net debt.
I’m still hanging on
The shares look reasonable value with a forward price-to-earnings ratio 13.5 times. The big question is whether Lewis can deliver some tangible growth.
The 20 analysts offering one-year share price forecasts produce a consensus target of 108p. If correct, that would see the shares climb just over 26% from today’s price of 85.6p. That’s encouraging, but these are merely educated guesses and analyst targets can change quickly.
The stock ratings also defy the downbeat mood:
- Strong Buy: 10
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 1
I’m impressed that only one analyst has a Sell rating after everything Diageo stock has been through. So they’re keeping the faith, and so am I. I’m down around 30% but won’t be selling. I don’t think the world has given up on alcohol yet, not after thousands of years.
However, as the cost-of-living crisis drags on, the recovery could prove slow and bumpy. Diageo may be worth considering for patient, long-term investors, but I can see more tempting growth stocks on the FTSE 100 today.
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Harvey Jones owns shares in Diageo.
This story originally appeared on Motley Fool
