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FTSE 100 mining giant Glencore‘s (LSE: GLEN) been a surprise package over the last 12 months. Its stellar performance took me completely by surprise, and I actually own it.
Many investors are still focused on Rolls-Royce after its stunning performance, with the shares rocketing 1,233% over five years. Yet over the last 12 months, they’ve climbed a modest 33%. Glencore has almost tripled that, soaring 90% over the last year.
That makes it the second best performer on the entire FTSE 100 after Computacenter, even after dropping 7.5% in the last week. Is this a buying opportunity?
Prior to this strong run, Glencore shares were volatile and I was nursing a 40% loss. That partly explains why I failed to realise just how well they’ve done.
Copper-bottomed rebound
Glencore’s recent numbers show just how violently the business can swing. Revenue fell 15% in 2023, then rose 6% in 2024 and 7% in 2025. Adjusted EBITDA, a useful measure of underlying profits, fell 50% in 2023 but climbed 16% in 2024, then rose 6% in 2025.
2026 has been good, so far. First-half adjusted EBITDA rocketed 86% to $10.1bn, while Glencore swung from a $655m loss to a $4.4bn profit.
Copper’s the key reason. It’s essential for electricity networks, electric vehicles and the huge expansion of AI data centres. Glencore’s already significant copper producer and CEO Gary Nagle said it aims “to become one of the world’s largest producers over the next decade“.
Glencore also produces zinc, nickel, cobalt, gold and silver, as well as huge quantities of coal. Its trading arm has been another star performer. Marketing earnings jumped 142% in the first half as the Middle East conflict sent oil, gas, freight and other commodity markets into a frenzy.
Coal creates a dilemma
In 2024, Glencore decided to retain its coal and steelmaking materials business, after overwhelming support from shareholders. Financially, it was a good move. Steelmaking coal averaged $206.90 a tonne in the first half, up from $167.10 one year earlier. The risk is that investors increasingly demand cleaner businesses, potentially putting a lower valuation on Glencore.
A global economic slowdown is another concern because copper, coal, nickel and other commodities are all tied to industrial demand.
The trailing P/E of around 75 looks ridiculous, but that followed unusually low earnings in 2025. The forward P/E of around 12.5 is a lot less demanding.
This is a cyclical stock
The dividend yield’s only about 2.25%, but shareholders have also received special distributions. In August, Glencore announced a $1bn special cash payment plus a $500m share buyback, taking planned 2026 shareholder returns to about $3.5bn.
The shares have still dipped. I’m guessing that’s down to profit-taking, and concerns about the impact of rising inflation and interest rates on the world economy.
I’m thrilled to see Glencore flying but I’m also conscious that commodity shares can turn quickly. It’s worth considering, but I’d tread carefully after such a strong run. I can see other exciting FTSE 100 recovery stocks out there today.
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Harvey Jones owns shares in Glencore.
This story originally appeared on Motley Fool
