Up 12% in a month! Can the BT share price really gain another 39%?

The BT Group (LSE: BT.A) share price has surged 12% in the past month. Yet despite this impressive rally, one leading City broker believes the FTSE 100 telecommunications giant could climb another 39% higher from here.

With billions invested in transforming its infrastructure, could the business finally be approaching a turning point?

A surging share price

As I write on Wednesday morning (4 November), the stock is trading at 222.9p with a market cap of £22.2bn.

Despite its recent gains, the stock remains well shy of its 242.09p 52-week high set back in May 2026.

Interestingly, several City analysts are tipping the stock to achieve further gains. JPMorgan has an Overweight rating and a 310p price target, implying a potential rise of 39.1% from today’s price.

For perspective, a £10,000 investment could grow to approximately £13,908 if that forecast materialises, excluding dividends and trading costs.

However, not everyone shares this optimism.

Here’s how several major brokers’ price targets compare:

Clearly the experts are split over which way the stock price is heading. Dispersion can create opportunities for savvy investors, however.

With management set to deliver the company’s half-year results tomorrow (5 November), what are the key factors that could push its share price higher?

Could the stock climb further?

I think the biggest opportunity lies in the company’s ongoing infrastructure transformation.

Through Openreach, the company has invested billions expanding its full-fibre broadband network across the UK. While this has placed pressure on short-term cash generation, the longer-term benefits could be substantial.

Importantly, management has ambitions to significantly improve free cash flow as infrastructure spending eventually moderates.

I think shareholders could benefit from a meaningful valuation uplift if management delivers on its strategic objectives and provides a sustainable platform for future growth.

We remain on track to deliver our targets, including cash flow of c£2.0bn this year and c£3.0bn by the end of the decade.

Group CEO Allison Kirkby

Combined with a dividend yield of approximately 3.7%, I can see why analysts are split on how to value the stock and there are certainly some risks to consider.

So, what am I expecting from the BT results tomorrow?

What to watch for

Some of the key risks facing the business at the moment are:

• Fierce competition including from alternative broadband providers.
• Pressure on customer numbers and declining legacy revenues.
• Substantial debt burden which could impact future earnings growth.

It’s these factors that have the likes of Barclays and others slapping a Sell rating on the stock right now.

Given the disparity in analyst price estimates, I think the half-year results are worth paying attention to.

I want to see evidence of strong cash generation and continued progress with the full-fibre rollout before making a decision on whether to buy.

For the moment, I think it’s too speculative to justify selling any existing holdings to make room for BT in my portfolio. I’ll be staying on the sidelines and staying disciplined in my investing approach with a long term outlook.

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Ken Hall does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned.