UFC Seattle main card odds, breakdowns and predictions | X-Factor

This weekend (Sat., Feb. 22, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington, for UFC Seattle. I genuinely feel bad for the “The Evergreen State” fans who purchased tickets. Originally, this card was scheduled to be an excellent “Fight Night” event fairly stacked with talent for a non-PPV event. Unfortunately, multiple injuries and pullouts have cancelled and shifted several of the best match ups, leaving us with a much more Apex-quality event than was initially planned.

Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the co-main event:

Featherweight: Jean Silva (-455) vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan (+350)

Best Win for Silva? Drew Dober For Baghdasaryan? Tucker Lutz
Current Streak: Silva has won three straight to start his UFC career, whereas Baghdasaryan won his last bout
X-Factor: Will Silva make weight?
How these two match up: This fight makes no sense.

Silva was one of the breakthrough fighters of 2024, winning three straight bouts via knockout in tremendous fashion. The 28-year-old Fighting Nerds trainee is a savage striker, capable of exploding forward into huge connections and timing monstrous counter strikes alike. After destroying Dober in a “Fight of the Night” performance, the prospect clearly deserves a ranked opponent.

Baghdasaryan, meanwhile, is … good?

At 33 years of age, the former professional kickboxer isn’t really a Featherweight prospect. “The Gun” has won three of four inside the Octagon and is certainly fun to watch, but he’s not a particularly well-rounded MMA fighter.

Is there a chance Baghdasaryan keeps his foe out of the pocket with powerful kicks and out-points the Brazilian? Sure, but it’s a small one. Silva has shown strong range management and kick defense in previous fights, and it’s not like Baghdasaryan has any real height or reach advantage.

Silva finds the pocket and lands the bigger shots consistently across three rounds.

Prediction: Silva via decision

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Light Heavyweight: Alonzo Menifield (?) vs. Julius Walker (?)

Best Win for Menifield? Dustin Jacoby For Walker? Bevon Lewis
Current Streak: Menifield has lost two straight, while Walker debuts at 6-0
X-Factor: Potential UFC jitters for Walker
How these two match up: This is a strange booking, only happening because of other cancelations.

Menifield is not a particularly technical fighter, but that hasn’t stopped him from knocking out some pretty darn good fighters. “Atomic” throws with monstrous power, has a reasonably solid gas tank for a big man, and can wrestle decently as well, making him a difficult (if limited) athlete.

At 25 years of age, meanwhile, Walker looks the part of a talented prospect even if he’s still green behind the ears. Standing at 6’4” with an 81-inch reach, Walker has been overwhelming foes with his strength and grappling to score quick finishes from top position.

While Menifield doesn’t have a deep wrestling skill set, that’s still not an easy gameplan to employ opposite the veteran. He has denied takedowns and then landed overhand bombs on more proven opponents than Walker. Add in the element of short-notice and this match up feels like a classic case in which the prospect isn’t able to dominate early.

That kind of new territory can break young fighters, and even if it doesn’t bother Walker, the power punches of Menifield probably will.

Prediction: Menifield via knockout

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Bantamweight: Rob Font (?) vs. Jean Matsumoto (?)

Best Win for Font? Cody Garbrandt For Matsumoto? Brad Katona
Current Streak: Font won his last bout, whereas Matsumoto is 2-0 in the UFC and 16-0 overall
X-Factor: Font is 37 years of age
How these two match up: Well, this wasn’t the original match up, but it’s still a good one.

Font may not have what it takes to beat elite Bantamweights, but he’s still a darn talented 135-pounder. His recent victories over talented youngsters Adrian Yanez and Kyler Phillips are proof! The boxer has a punishing jab and heavy cross, which combined with solid wrestling and good physicality, has repeatedly proven to be a winning combination.

Matsumoto, age 25, is a well-rounded and scrappy talent. He’s a slick scrambler with dangerous submissions, comfortable pushing a high pace and mixing up his offense with strikes and takedowns alike.

Font feels like a tall task on short-notice. Font’s sharp jab will be compounded by height and reach advantages, so he’ll likely be able to control the exchanges on the feet. Matsumoto will have to wrestle to win, but he’s been on the wrong side of the takedown equation against both Dan Argueta and Brad Katona (even if he ended up winning the fight).

Controlling Font isn’t easy for anyone but the best. More likely, it’s mostly a kickboxing match, and Font will be the man landing the heavier blows to defeat yet another younger talent.

Prediction: Font via decision

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Light Heavyweight: Ion Cutelaba (+114) vs. Ibo Aslan (-135)

Best Win for Cutelaba? Khalil Rountree For Aslan? Raffael Cerqueira
Current Streak: Cutelaba rebounded last time out, whereas Aslan is 2-0 in the UFC
X-Factor: Cutelaba cannot follow a game plan
How these two match up: It likely won’t last long, but it should be fun.

Though he’s still just 31 years old, I’ve given up on the idea of Cutelaba ever living up to his potential and being more than an action fighter. A quality wrestler with heavy hands should be able to do more in a weak division like 205 pounds, but fatigue and bad defense continue to hold back Cutelaba.

Conversely, Aslan is still a very new face in the division. In two fights, he’s won via knockout (twice) in less than 2:30 total. Obviously, there are still questions about his gas tank and overall technical abilities in a longer fight, but it’s hard not to at least be interested in his offensive potential.

Aslan has lost on the ground previously, and Cutelaba is an experienced UFC veteran with the wrestling experience to give him trouble. On paper, that sounds like the perfect match up to result in a classic “prospect loss.”

The problem is Cutelaba cannot be trusted. Even if his wrestling is good enough to dominate, he still might blow his wad or make some baffling decision that turns the tables. Meanwhile, Aslan can be trusted to throw hard punches-in-bunches and try to take his opponent’s head off.

Good enough for me.

Prediction: Aslan via knockout

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2025: 3-2

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Seattle card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 9 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Seattle: “Cejudo vs. Song” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.