Anthony Smith vs. Zhang Mingyang: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC Kansas City

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight sluggers Anthony Smith vs. Zhang Mingyang will collide this weekend (Sat., April 26, 2025) inside T-Mobile Arena in Kansas City, Missouri at UFC Kansas City.

After 59 professional fights, Smith is about ready to call its quits, though he’s giving himself one final opportunity to exit on a win. “Lionheart” rose to heights few expected when he jumped up to 205-pounds, went on a solid run, and challenged Jon Jones for undisputed gold, but it’s fair to say the veteran has looked uncomfortable in the cage as of late. UFC is rarely the promotion to softball retirement match ups, and Mingyang is no exception. China’s “Mountain Tiger” is a 26-year-old finisher, an aggressive striker with serious power in his hands.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Smith vs. Mingyang Betting Odds

• Anthony Smith victory: +370
• Anthony Smith via TKO/KO/DQ: +1200
• Anthony Smith via submission: +1000
• Anthony Smith via decision: +1100
• Zhang Mingyang victory: -485
• Zhang Mingyang via TKO/KO/DQ: -280
• Zhang Mingyang via submission: +900
• Zhang Mingyang via decision: +700
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

How Smith Wins

Smith has been in the game for a real long time. He’s a dangerous offensive fighter on two fronts, attacking with powerful kickboxing and slick submission skills alike. He does have a bad habit of landing himself in a defensive cycle where he can no longer initiate his own offense, but even then, Smith has pulled out a few sudden comebacks over the years.

In this bout, Smith cannot be reactive. Mingyang is too powerful and aggressive; he can’t be allowed to get rolling. Smith has a lot more tools here and should use them. I’d like to see “Lionheart” moving forward behind his long strikes, herding Mingyang to the fence, and trying to find success in the clinch. He’s nasty in close quarters with his elbows and knees, and Smith could really take over this fight if able to land a takedown.

Young knockout artists are rarely great at defense from bottom.

It’s really important here that Smith keeps his guard high without giving up on his attacks. Even if Mingyang dings him early, Smith has to keep pushing forward and firing if he’s going to score the upset.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

How Mingyang Wins

Mingyang enters the biggest fight of his career riding an 11-fight win streak that dates back to 2020. He’s clearly coming into his own, the classic picture of a young fighter hitting their stride and surging forward with real confidence.

The question is whether that confidence backfires against Smith’s experience.

Mingyang has to walk the line of bullying Smith without getting reckless, so intelligent pressure is the name of the game. The Chinese prospect wants to exchange, but he doesn’t have to lunge forward wildly and give Smith an upper hand to make trades happen. An ounce of cage cutting would go a long way, as would a focus on blocking kicks and immediately firing back.

A final Smith specific adjustment would be a focus on calf kicks. “Lionheart” hates them. He always has, and his reaction times aren’t getting faster with age. Mingyang is a solid kicker, so adjusting his focus a bit on blasting that lead leg will leave Smith more immobile and help line up a big connection upstairs.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Smith vs. Mingyang Prediction

There are only two possible outcomes here.

In the first, Mingyang runs over Smith. He knocks him out clean early or hits him hard enough that Smith goes into that protective shell — which still means the fight is over, just in a more prolonged, unpleasant way. Alternatively, Mingyang gets too wild and shows his youth by ducking into a choke or walking into a huge counter.

In the last few years, Smith has submitted more than one talented young fighter who expected to destroy him. It would be rude to count him out entirely based on his history as a spoiler. Still, this feels too late in the game against too strong a prospect, so I’m forced to side with the first option as the more likely outcome.

Prediction: Mingyang via knockout (-280)