Here’s MMAmania.com’s UFC Kansas City betting odds ‘Weekend Lock’ … what’s yours?

UFC Kansas City is less than 24 hours away …

It all goes down this weekend (Sat., April 26, 2025) from inside T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. In the main event, No. 7-ranked Welterweight contender, Ian Garry, collides with surging Brazilian knockout artist, Carlos Prates, inside T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.

We’ve have a weekly series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we feel could slap in “City of Fountains” when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Kansas City betting lock in the comments section below (full UFC Kansas City odds here).

It was probably good that there was no UFC event last weekend because I’m still recovering from Paddy Pimblett ruining my super confident UFC 314 “Weekend Lock,” dismantling Michael Chandler. But, we’re back and ready to get back in the win column.

We’re 4-2 so far, so let’s keep keeping on below …

UFC knows exactly what it’s doing by placing former Top 15-ranked Flyweight, Matt Schnell, versus all-action Jimmy Flick as the “Prelims” headliner. That’s because it’s guaranteed to be chaotic.

Here’s why:

Schnell (16-9) brings a 69 percent finish rate, with nine submissions and two knockouts to his name. When he loses, it’s rarely by decision — only one of his defeats has gone to the scorecards, with the rest ending in finishes (often brutal ones). He’s been stopped in four of his last five fights, showing high vulnerability, but also a penchant for chaos.

Flick (17-8), on the other hand, is a submission machine with an 88 percent finish rate, including 15 submission victories. However, he’s been knocked out five times, with two of those KOs coming inside the Octagon. Notably, Flick has never secured a knockout win himself, relying heavily on his grappling.

The bottom line? This fight is almost certainly not going the distance. Indeed, one of these guys is getting finished … and it’s likely to be quick.

Therefore, UFC Kansas City’s “Weekend Lock” is Schnell vs. Flick to not start round three at -175.

If you’re looking for a safer bet, the fight not “going the distance” is priced at -380.

Both fighters are desperate to snap their losing streaks, so expect fireworks. These Flyweights are also wildly unpredictable, making the winner a true coin flip in my book.

For what it’s worth, a Twitter/X user backing Schnell shared these stats to support their pick:

GROK AI added this as well:

Schnell to Win (-225): A solid choice given his striking edge and Flick’s inability to finish via KO. This is safer if you believe Schnell can avoid grappling exchanges. Posts on X and expert picks lean toward Schnell due to Flick’s limited striking.

Under 1.5 Rounds (-110): A compelling bet considering both fighters’ tendencies. Schnell’s recent fights often end early (four straight into the second round), and Flick’s submission-heavy style or vulnerability to strikes could lead to a quick finish. This hedges against either outcome.

Flick by Submission (+450 or higher, if available): A high-value underdog bet for risk-takers. Flick’s elite grappling could exploit Schnell’s submission loss history, especially if odds drift closer to fight night. Check sportsbooks like DraftKings for updated lines.

Under 1.5 Rounds (-110) offers the best balance of value and likelihood, as the fight is unlikely to go the distance due to Schnell’s finishing potential and Flick’s submission threat. Schnell’s predicted KO/TKO in Round 2 is another option, but the Under 1.5 covers more scenarios.

Matt Schnell To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +140
Matt Schnell To Win By Submission: +400
Matt Schnell To Win By Decision: +400
Draw: +5000
Jimmy Flick To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +1200
Jimmy Flick To Win By Submission: +300
Jimmy Flick To Win By Decision: +900
Fight to Go the Distance: Yes: +250 | No: -380

Do you agree with our lock of the weekend? Please sound off in the comments and let us know your most confident UFC Kansas City pick this weekend. Correct “lock” predictions will be shared in our “Best of the Best” article next week, too.

LIVE! Stream UFC Kansas City On ESPN+

WELTERWEIGHT WAR! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo., for an electrifying main event clash on April 26, 2025. Irish Welterweight star, Ian Machado Garry, takes on surging Brazilian finisher, Carlos Prates, in a high-stakes, five-round showdown. In UFC KC’s co-main event, former Light Heavyweight title challenger, Anthony Smith, faces off against the hard-hitting Zhang Mingyang, promising an explosive battle in the 205-pound division.

Don’t miss a single second of face-punching action!

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Kansas City fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” undercard bouts at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Kansas City news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here.