UFC Des Moines main card odds, breakdowns and predictions | X-Factor

This weekend (Sat., May 3, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa for UFC Des Moines. I’m quite excited for the promotion’s return to “The Hawkeye State.” Bantamweight main events never fail to deliver high-level MMA action, plus we might finally learn if Bo Nickal is a decent Middleweight or not. Better yet, the promotion actually brought Jeremy Stephens back for a hometown throw down, and when has “Lil Heathen” ever failed to swing for the fences? Really when Miesha Tate is headlining the “Prelims” rather than occupying the co-main event, it’s a real sign that the event features more talent than usual.

Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the first four main card fights leading up to the co-main event:

Welterweight: Santiago Ponzinibbio (-122) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+102)

Best Win for Ponzinibbio? Neil Magny For Rodriguez? Mike Perry
Current Streak: Both men won their last bout
X-Factor: Ponzinibbio is very long in the tooth
How these two match up: There’s no way these two veterans don’t scrap it out.

Ponzinibbio was a genuine title threat before injury and illness sidelined him for two years. Since his return, Ponzinibbio is still a dangerous kickboxer but doesn’t carry the same lightning behind his strikes and movement. Rodriguez, meanwhile, started his UFC career hot with seven wins in eight fights, but he struggled when faced with Top 10 competition. He’s also a striker, an accurate counter puncher who’s more than comfortable in a brawl.

This is roughly the fifth bout in a row where we’re forced to weigh the liability of Ponzinbbio’s washed status versus his tough-as-an-old-shoe asset. His last bout versus Carlston Harris was a perfect example of why his recent bouts have been so difficult to predict: he nearly got knocked out by the Brazilian’s wonky punches in round one, but then he spent the second and third pummeling him and showing off the gap in skill.

Truly, he’s a wild card at this stage of the game.

I expect Rodriguez to get the better of him here. There’s going to be a significant gap in speed against the Argentinian, and his jab is going to be a bit trickier to land against the Southpaw. If Rodriguez shows some aggression, he can definitely hurt Ponzinibbio, and he also has the benefit of fighting better opposition as of late.

I’m expecting a competitive fight, but Ponzinibbio gets hurt at least once, and it costs him the scorecards.

Prediction: Rodriguez via decision

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Bantamweight: Montel Jackson (-205) vs. Daniel Marcos (+170)

Best Win for Jackson? Da’Mon Blackshear For Daniel Marcos? Davey Grant
Current Streak: Jackson has won five in a row, whereas Marcos is 4-0 (1) in his five trips to the Octagon
X-Factor: Marcos has fought more actively in recent years
How these two match up: Bantamweight never fails to deliver the goods.

Jackson is an excellent fighter who would have more momentum if his wins didn’t have so much time between them. An accomplished wrestler with monstrous power in his hands, Jackson is gigantic for the division and quite skilled at patiently lining up huge connections. At 33 years of age, it’s really past time for Jackson to capitalize on those skills and his win streak with a run at the rankings.

Marcos has been an interesting addition to the 135-pound class. He’s clearly a skilled and game kickboxer, difficult to take down and able to throw good volume. However, two of the four wins on his current streak were debatable split-decisions, which takes a bit of the luster from his undefeated professional record.

The bottom line here is this is a top-notch booking of unranked Bantamweights, athletes who definitely give more “name” opponents a tough match. On the whole, I think Jackson is the more serious knockout threat and may be able to score some key takedowns as well. The only minor concern is that relative inactivity, as he has fought just once in the last 24 months, and the bout only lasted 18 seconds!

Still, he seems like the better fighter with the higher ceiling, and Marcos is going to have a hard time building combinations while staring down the barrel of that left hand.

Prediction: Jackson via decision

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Bantamweight: Cameron Smotherman (+120) vs. Serhiy Sidey (-142)

Best Win for Smotherman? Jake Hadley For Sidey?
Current Streak: Smotherman won his UFC debut back in October, whereas Sidey rebounded last time out
X-Factor: Both men are still young in their professional and UFC careers
How these two match up: What did I just say about Bantamweights?

Unlike the match up above, these two are still newer faces in the promotion. Smotherman impressed in that debut versus Hadley, showing off strong boxing fundamentals to control the pace and distance en route to a one-sided victory. Sidey is more of a striker as well, but he’s a bit more varied between his kicks and punches. He’ll enjoy a couple of enjoys in both height and reach, which will be an interesting dynamic given Smotherman was so effective at stranding the shorter fighter at distance last time out.

One wonders how well he can close forward?

Once more, I’m expecting a back-and-forth kickboxing match here. Given the similarities in their output and level of opposition, it reads like a well-matched bout. I’m not expecting anybody to run away with it, but the most standout aspect I’ve seem between the two is Smotherman’s fluid punching and range management. Sidey is going to have to pick-and-choose when to exchange versus when it would be wiser to kick and move.

I can’t say I feel overly confident, but boxing is everything in MMA striking right now, so why not side with the current meta?

Prediction: Smotherman via decision

Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images

Lightweight: Jeremy Stephens (+425) vs. Mason Jones (-575)

Best Win for Stephens? Rafael dos Anjos For Jones? David Onama
Current Streak: Stephens lost his last MMA bout but won in BKFC, whereas Jones has won four straight to earn a UFC call back
X-Factor: Stephens is old in fight years
How these two match up: Somebody is going to hit the canvas hard.

Do I really need to introduce “Lil Heathen?” If you’re reading this column, you know Jeremy Stephens’ deal. He’s been around the game forever, fighting a who’s who of two separate divisions throughout his UFC career. He developed his Muay Thai a bit in that span, but he’s always been a brawler first and foremost.

As for Jones, his first UFC run doesn’t look so bad in hindsight. Beating David Onama has aged wonderfully, whereas losses to Mike Davis and Ludovit Klein are understandable. Regardless, Jones is a high-volume kickboxing and in-fighter who breaks down his opposition, and he’s no stranger to a slugfest himself.

Does Stephens have crazy power still? Of course. Is Jones hittable? Sure. While the recipe for a throwback “Lil Heathen” overhand KO exists, however, it’s not very likely. Stephens has lost a lot of the durability that allowed him to be so aggressive, and Jones is likely to take full advantage of his lost speed as well.

Expect a few Hail Mary swings from the veteran, but Jones is going to hurt him early and return to the Octagon in style.

Prediction: Jones via knockout

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2025: 18-13

LIVE! Stream UFC Des Moines On ESPN+

BANTAMWEIGHT BANGER! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa, for a thrilling main event clash on May 3, 2025. Top-ranked Bantamweight contender, Cory Sandhagen, faces off against former Flyweight champion, Deiveson Figueiredo, in a high-stakes, five-round showdown. In UFC Des Moines’ co-main event, rising Middleweight star, Bo Nickal, takes on dynamic grappler, Reinier de Ridder, promising an intense battle in the 185-pound division.

Don’t miss a single second of face-punching action!

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Des Moines fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN2/ESPN+ “Prelims” undercard bouts at 7 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Des Moines news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here.