Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC 316

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight rivals Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley will clash TONIGHT (Sat., June 7, 2025) inside Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey at UFC 316.

Dvalishvili didn’t have the easiest time finding opponents when his incredible win streak pushed him into the Top Five, but the Bantamweight kingpin is trying to make up for lost time. He’s about to make the walk for his third title fight in just 10 months. That’s an outrageous schedule for a man consistently going 25 minutes at 34 years of age, but hey, “The Machine” is more than a nickname.

By all accounts, O’Malley is doing everything right ahead of his largely undeserved rematch. “Suga” will enter the cage with a new level of focus, but it remains to be seen if a grappling-heavy camp and plain Jane hair cut are enough to make the difference in this Bantamweight do-over.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2 Betting Odds

• Merab Dvalishvili victory: -285
• Merab Dvalishvili via TKO/KO/DQ: +800
• Merab Dvalishvili via submission: +900
• Merab Dvalishvili via decision: -165
• Sean O’Malley victory: +230
• Sean O’Malley via TKO/KO/DQ: +450
• Sean O’Malley via submission: +2800
• Sean O’Malley via decision: +600
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

How Dvalishvili Wins

There is no nickname more apt than “The Machine.” Dvalishvili’s work rate compared to that of his peers really does seem to imply some kind of mechanical advantage. He can wrestle relentlessly to a degree that makes him an anomaly, the lone exception to the “Fear makes cowards of us all” rule.

It helps that his transitions between strikes and shots are excellent.

Not for the first time, Dvalishvili has talked about striking more in this bout. Quite simply, that would be a terrible idea. O’Malley is a premier sniper with serious power, so giving him a chance to line up his shot would not at all help Dvalishvili’s odds of securing a second title defense.

No, Dvalishvili was pretty perfect in the first fight. He pressed O’Malley early and started hanging on him, slowing those fast hands and quick kicks. “Suga” will surely show up with some new tricks, but Dvalishvili’s tried-and-true strategy of putting his foe through the washing machine of takedown-get up-takedown can still shut all that down.

Hands up, chin down, get to the legs sooner than later.

Photo by GIORGIO VIERA/AFP via Getty Images

How O’Malley Wins

O’Malley is an exceptional striker. He’s long and rangy, yet still capable of throwing an enormous amount of punches with considerable snap on them. Perhaps because of his lanky build and goofy antics, he’s overlooked as being an exceptional athlete, but the former champion is just that.

10 months isn’t enough time to fully shore up the wrestling gap between these two, but it’s plenty of time for O’Malley to adjust his tactics. He may be the underdog here, but “Suga” has undeniable advantages over Merab in terms of reach and stand up skill, so the question is how to best impose them.

O’Malley landed on something of an answer late in the first fight, hurting Dvalishvili with a snap kick to the mid-section. The front kick has to make a return here, but that can’t be the end of his body work. O’Malley has to be touching Dvalishvili’s torso with long jabs and straights, making Dvalishvili really work for every inch of distance.

Enough body work will make Dvalishvili’s gas tank just a little more human.

Otherwise, O’Malley needs more lateral movement. He was herded to the fence too often in the first fight for a man so quick, so direction changes should be really helpful here in buying him more time to dig at the body and line up something heavy.

Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2 Prediction

Picking against Dvalishvili right now would be irresponsible, and I say this as a man who wrongly picked “Suga” in the first match up. My reasoning last September was that Dvalishvili gets stung in fights fairly often, and O’Malley is one of the division’s best strikers. That’s still true, and it’s why I think this rematch is closer than the odds indicated.

Even so, I can’t go against the momentum of “The Machine.” Quite simply, the man is built different and has yet to show any sign of slowing down. Unless O’Malley connects on that PERFECT kill shot in the opening two rounds, I have to assume wrestling and pace win the day once more.

Prediction: Dvalishvili via decision

LIVE! Watch UFC 316 PPV On ESPN+ Here!

CHAMPIONSHIP DOUBLE-DIP! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) continues its 2025 pay-per-view (PPV) schedule on Sat., June 7, 2025, with a championship doubleheader headlining UFC 316 from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. In UFC 316’s PPV main event, Bantamweight roost-ruler, Merab Dvalishvili, defends his title against former division champion, Sean O’Malley, in a highly-anticipated five-round rematch. UFC 316’s PPV co-main event features women’s Bantamweight titleholder, Julianna Pena, facing off against two-time Olympic gold medalist, Kayla Harrison, in a thrilling five-round clash. UFC 316 will also showcase a 135-pound showdown between Patchy Mix vs. Mario Bautista, as well as a Welterweight bout pitting Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland and much more! UFC 316’s start time is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (“Early Prelims”), 8 p.m. ET (“Prelims” undercard) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).

Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching action!

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 316 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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