Examining Tessa Thompson’s Oscar Nomination Chances For Hedda

November 4, 2025

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There has been no shortage of great performances this year. Many of 2025’s best movies have included actors doing incredible work, and Tessa Thompson’s performance as Hedda Gabler in Hedda is certainly among that group. The actress, who is best known for her roles in major franchises like Creed and as Valkyrie in the MCU, is extraordinary in Nia DaCosta’s seductive, chaotic period drama.

Thompson tackles a complicated role in the reimagining of Henrik Ibsen’s Hedda Gabler play. Hedda is powerful in any situation, almost always in control. She’s charming with a quick wit, enchantingly stunning, and desperate to have everything she wants. Hedda can also be cold as ice, sweet and earnest, and a master manipulator, all as she tries to hide the heartache driving her actions.

Through every turn of Hedda, Thompson delivers. It’s a tremendous bit of acting that showcases her versatility as a performer, as she can flip between the characters’ wide-ranging emotions at an instant whenever the movie requires it. It’s the type of performance that screams Oscars consideration, and yet, there are real questions about whether Thompson will be recognized by the Academy Award voters.

Tessa Thompson’s Oscar Chances & The State Of The Best Actress Race

The path to an Oscar nomination for Tessa Thompson is through the Best Actress category. She’s firmly the lead of Hedda, so there is no room for campaigning shenanigans to maneuver her to Supporting Actress.

However, Thompson is not currently seen as a major contender for a 2026 Oscar nomination in Best Actress. She did pick up a Gotham Awards nomination for Outstanding Lead Performance, which does show that all is not lost on getting a nomination if momentum can pick up. But, she’s firmly behind other performers based on public perception.

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) is seen as the frontrunner to win, while Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) have strong chances to be nominated. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), and Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) are other major contenders.

This has left Thompson outside of most Oscars 2026 Best Actress predictions. In my latest assessment of the race for the site, she remained in my “in the mix” section rather than being among the five predicted nominees. I wish this weren’t the case after seeing Hedda, but just about every Oscars expert is in the same boat.

Variety‘s Clayton Davis has her in 11th place, and THR‘s Scott Feinberg has her in 10th place under the “Possibilities” section. She’s outside the consensus top 10 for the entire NextBestPicture staff, and no one there has her formally in their top 5.

Then on GoldDerby, she’s 11th overall, combining expert and user predictions, with odds of 1.28% of getting nominated. Of the 34 experts the site counts, only one, Shawn Edwards of WDAF-TV Fox, has Thompson getting an Oscar nomination.

Betting markets also have her as a long shot, as she’s +3500 on DraftKings.

That all paints the picture for how much of an uphill climb it appears to be for Thompson to get an Oscar nomination. But, again, her Gotham nomination could also be the start of a campaign that turns things around, which Amazon will look to do now that Hedda is streaming on Prime Video and getting more attention.

Amazon’s Oscar History & What It Means For Tessa Thompson

Tessa Thompson's Hedda talking to Eileen with tears in her eyes in Hedda — Tessa Thompson’s Hedda talking to Eileen with tears in her eyes in Hedda

Studio campaign strategies are always important to changing award season narratives. Thompson’s performance could pick up steam naturally as more people see Hedda and her work in it, but Amazon’s involvement is also a factor worth considering.

While their streaming rival Netflix has racked up plenty of Oscar nominations and wins in past years, Amazon has not been as consistent or powerful a force at the Academy Awards. The studio started strong with Manchester by the Sea in 2016, becoming the first streamer to get a Best Picture nomination.

The movie also secured Amazon its first Oscar nominations in an acting category, as Casey Affleck, Lucas Hedges, and Michelle Williams got recognition in Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress, respectively. Affleck even won Best Actor.

After that, Amazon movies have failed to win another acting Oscar. Leslie Odom Jr. was nominated for Best Supporting Actor for One Night in Miami, Riz Ahmed and Paul Raci were nominated in Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor for Sound of Metal, Maria Makalova was nominated in Best Supporting Actress for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, and Being the Ricardos brought nominations for Nicole Kidman (Actress), Javier Bardem (Actor), and J.K. Simmons (Supporting Actor).

So, Amazon does have some history of campaigning performances in its movies to Oscar nominations, but they rarely win. That possibility for Thompson is getting well ahead of ourselves, as she needs to get nominated first. And while Amazon has only delivered one Best Actress Oscar nomination before, doing so again in 2026 could come down to who they back.

For as much as Thompson might give a performance worthy of Oscar recognition, Amazon is also handling Julia Roberts’ campaign for After the Hunt. The Luca Guadagnino movie hasn’t been anywhere near as beloved as expected. The poor response to the film has made Roberts’ chances of truly contending look less likely.

With After the Hunt‘s stumble, Amazon could turn to Hedda as its best chance to be featured at the 98th Academy Awards. The studio has no other potential awards contender. There is certainly more excitement around and support for Hedda at the moment in awards circles, so it’d make sense for this film to become Amazon’s priority for the rest of the campaign season.

If they take this approach, Thompson will have a more legitimate chance of entering the top five. FYC screenings of the film and any post-screening Q&As that the actress can do would go a long way. The more attention Amazon can bring Hedda‘s way, the better the odds become of Tessa Thompson getting a Best Actress nomination early next year and not being a snub.