Could S&P 500 stock SanDisk double my money over the next 12 months?

SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) is the best-performing S&P 500 stock over the last year. Believe it or not, it’s up more than 3,500%.

Could it double again from here? Let’s discuss.

Profiting from the memory boom

SanDisk is a memory company. And demand for memory is off the charts at the moment due to the fact that it’s an important component in generative AI systems.

Given this high level of demand, SanDisk is seeing prolific growth at present. Take a look at these numbers from its recent fourth-quarter FY26 earnings:

• Revenue of $8.97bn, up 372% year on year.
• Non-GAAP net income of $6,162m versus $42m a year earlier.
• Earnings per share of $39.25, up from $0.29 in Q4 2025.
• Gross margin of 84.6% versus 78.4% in the previous quarter.

Long-term contracts with customers

Now, memory has historically been a very cyclical industry. What I mean by this is that it has had booms and busts.

But things could be changing. Because memory companies are signing long-term contracts with buyers today.

In its Q4 earnings, SanDisk said that it now has ‘New Business Model’ (NBM) agreements with eight data centre and edge customers. The weighted average duration of these NBMs is over four years meaning that demand for its memory products isn’t suddenly going to fall off a cliff tomorrow.

Gross margins for these NBMs is expected to be around 80%. In other words, they’re very profitable deals for the company.

Fiscal year 2026 was the year Sandisk redefined what this franchise can be. We delivered record financial results, established data centre as a major pillar of growth, secured our manufacturing and supply base through the next decade, and fundamentally restructured how we transact with our largest customers.
SanDisk CEO David Goeckeler

Can it double?

So the company clearly has momentum right now and the future looks bright. But as I asked earlier, can the stock double after that massive rise over the last 12 months?

Well, I wouldn’t rule out a doubling in the share price from here because the company’s valuation is still low – the forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is only 7.5.

We could potentially see a scenario where investors feel comfortable awarding SanDisk a much higher valuation now that it has long-term contracts with eight customers. If the P/E ratio were to rise to 15 (still quite low relative to the growth), we’d get a doubling of the share price, assuming earnings per share (EPS) don’t fall.

It’s worth noting here that the company is buying back a ton of shares. This should help to boost EPS.

What do analysts think?

I’ll point out that the average analyst 12-month price target today is only $1,984. That’s just 24% above the current share price meaning that the consensus view is that the stock won’t double.

Having said that, some analyst firms have much higher price targets. For example, Bernstein SocGen has a target of $3,000, which isn’t that far off a double from here.

Should I buy?

As for whether I’ll buy SanDisk for my portfolio, I’m undecided at this stage. I do think the stock looks interesting given its valuation. However, I already hold a few other memory stocks.

There are also risks around slowing growth as pricing power may drop off. So, for now, I’m going to keep it on my watchlist.

Should you invest £5,000 in Sandisk right now?

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Edward Sheldon does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.