Nadia Massih is pleased to welcome Dr Andreas Krieg, Senior Lecturer School of Security Studies at King’s College London and Fellow at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies. According to Dr. Krieg, “Iran is fighting a war against the global economy.” By targeting the UAE, and especially Dubai, Tehran is not merely retaliating militarily but seeking to exploit what Krieg calls the “Achilles heel” of the international system: the Gulf’s hyperconnected financial and logistical infrastructure. The UAE, he argues, is “the most connected Middle Eastern country in terms of finances, trade, commodities, goods, people, as well as data,” making it both indispensable and dangerously exposed.
He dismantles the assumption of a grand “‘strategic realignment” between UAE and Israel, insisting instead that the relationship remains “very cold, very pragmatic,” driven less by ideological convergence than by “operational” interests in technology, intelligence, and security. He describes Israel as “the arsonist who then appeared as a firefighter”: Israel may offer tactical support, but the conflict itself has profoundly destabilized Emirati interests.
Dr. Krieg points to growing tensions between Abu Dhabi and the northern emirates, particularly Dubai, whose service economy and merchant networks remain deeply dependent on regional stability and historic ties with Iran. His reminder that “they are prisoners of geography” underscores the central thesis of the conversation: despite narratives of autonomy, Gulf geopolitics ultimately remain constrained by proximity, interdependence, and the impossibility of escaping the regional security order.
This story originally appeared on France24
