By January, Southern California usually has experienced enough rain that a major winter wind event does not bring fears of a major fire.
But not this year.
More than eight months without any measurable rainfall, Southland officials are gearing up for what is expected to be a “life-threatening and destructive” windstorm. The winds will last several days and occur in areas well beyond the region’s typical wind corridors — with the potential to drag the area’s fire season into January.
“This upcoming event is extreme,” said Capt. Erik Scott, a spokesperson for the Los Angeles Fire Department. “Many people think that when the winter months come they might be out of fire danger and that’s simply not true, especially in Southern California.”
Gusty, dry winds — some that could reach up to 100 mph — are forecast across much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties beginning Tuesday, and are expected to elevate the threat for fast-moving wildfires and also cause damage to trees, powerlines and even high-profile vehicles.
A rare, late-season red flag warning describing “widespread, damaging … and long-duration” fire weather conditions has been issued for the region through at least Thursday, with a possibility that it could be extended to Friday. This is the first January since 2021 that the National Weather Service’s Los Angeles office has issued such an alert.
“It’s not a common occurrence,” said Rich Thompson, a weather service meteorologist, of the January red flag warning. But he said it does happen, particularly “at times in our drier winters.”
And so far, Southern California is experiencing one of its driest starts in years to what is supposed to be the rainy season. Downtown Los Angeles hasn’t seen recorded over a tenth of an inch of rain since May 5.
“We can’t let our guard down in Southern California,” said Brent Pascua, a battalion chief for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. “This year, we haven’t seen as much moisture… so the fuel is primed.”
Parched vegetation on its own isn’t a major concern during cooler months, typically, but when a strong Santa Ana winds pick up and humidity drops, a single spark can rapidly become dangerous, Pascua said.
“That is the perfect recipe for a large wildfire,” he said.
The upcoming windstorm hadn’t yet elevated the red flag warning to an even more unusual “particularly dangerous situation” as of Monday afternoon, but forecasters are warning conditions could worsen. Both the Mountain fire in November in Ventura County and the Franklin fire in December in Malibu erupted amid those dangerously dry, windy conditions.
“If fire ignition occurs, conditions are favorable for very rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior, including long range spotting, which would threaten life and property,” this week’s red flag warning said. “Use extreme caution with anything that can spark a wildfire. Residents near wildland interfaces should be prepared to evacuate if a wildfire breaks out.”
While large wildfires in January remain rare for California — since 2016, there have only been a handful of January fires and most of them have been small, according to the CalFire database — they are not unheard of. In 2014, the Colby fire broke out in Glendora and Azusa in mid-January, destroying several homes and structures in the area.
Extra concerning is this wind event’s broad scope. Dangerously strong winds are expected in the mountains and along typical windy corridors, but also in regions that don’t typically see these strong Santa Anas: includng the Hollywood Hills, Beverly Hills and the Sepulveda Pass, and even into the Palos Verdes Penninsula and onto Catalina Island. Those areas are under a fire weather watch as of Monday.
“Given the widespread nature of the winds we’re expecting, it’s a very high level of concern everywhere,” Thompson said. “Anywhere in L.A. County outside of the Antelope Valley — from the mountains to the coast, … be ready to take action if a fire does break out during this event.”
Across the region, sustained north and northeast winds are expected around 35 to 55 mph, with widespread damaging gusts up 50 to 80 mph, the weather service warned. The strongest winds are expected in the mountains, foothills, and valleys, where isolated gusts from 80 to 100 mph are possible in some San Fernando and San Gabriel foothills, including Crescenta, Altadena, Monrovia, and Azusa.
There’s also a chance for “strong mountain wave wind conditions” late Tuesday into early Wednesday, which means the winds could orient in such a way that gusts will rapidly drop down the slopes of the San Gabriel mountains causing “brief bursts of very strong, dangerous winds,” Thompson said.
“If it does develop, it can cause very specific damage,” he said. “Imagine like a wave in the water … those winds kind of go down slope, then just hit the surface and get very strong.”
Such a “mountain wave” event wouldn’t last long, but it has the potential to cause destruction similar to what occurred in 2011 in Pasadena, Altadena and other San Gabriel Valley neighborhoods, when blasts of wind caused serious damage, including knocking out power for days for more than 400,000 people.
“Stay indoors and away from windows,” the weather service warned in its latest alert, focused on that region. “Expect power outages.”
Officials said they are coordinating with the weather service to best prepare for both wind damage and possible fires. CalFire has been pre-positioning resources and increasing staffing across Southern California ahead of the winds, Pascua said. In Los Angeles, crews are setting up additional resources near high-fire zones and making contingency plans for what to do if an emergency does arise, Scott said.
Utility providers have warned that along with unplanned outages, they may initiate planned shutoffs to limit fire starts. Southern California Edison has warned 294,000 customers, primarily across Los Angeles, Ventura, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, may see shutoffs Tuesday and Wednesday “due to heightened wildfire risk.” San Diego Gas & Electric is considering cutting off power to almost 60,000 customers beginning Tuesday across mostly inland San Diego County.
The current red flag warning is only focused on Los Angeles and Ventura counties, but weather service officials said it could be extended into Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.
Many parts of Southern California that are not included in the fire weather warnings are still under a high wind watches, with damaging winds expected to cause disruptions to power or travel Tuesday and Wednesday, including across inland Orange County, the Inland Empire and the San Bernardino, Riverside and San Diego mountains and valleys.
